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Strumska Slava vs Chernomorets Balchik — Second League 2018

Strumska Slava
Strumska Slava
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chernomorets Balchik
Chernomorets Balchik
2/22/2020Second LeagueSecond League · Round 20Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Strumska Slava52%
×Draw27%
Chernomorets Balchik21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strumska Slava
1.44
Chernomorets Balchik
0.81

Strumska Slava creates 78% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 43 away

creates per match

Strumska Slava
1.17
Chernomorets Balchik
0.60

allows per match

Strumska Slava
1.03
Chernomorets Balchik
1.70

finishing

Strumska Slava+0.00on par
Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strumska Slava ↓

Chernomorets Balchik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Strumska Slava or draw
79%
Strumska Slava or Chernomorets Balchik
73%
Draw or Chernomorets Balchik
48%

Winning margin

Strumska Slava wins by 2+
26%
Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Strumska Slava 1+ goals
76%
Strumska Slava 2+ goals
42%
Strumska Slava 3+ goals
18%
Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals
56%
Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals
19%
Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Strumska Slava (draw refunded)
71%
Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strumska Slava at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 110 matches

Chernomorets Balchik away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.70 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strumska Slava attack 1.17 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.44

Chernomorets Balchik attack 0.60 + Strumska Slava defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Strumska Slava scores more
52%
level
27%
Chernomorets Balchik scores more
21%

Strumska Slava at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Strumska Slava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Strumska Slava 1–0 Chernomorets Balchik

Strumska Slava beat Chernomorets Balchik 1-0 in Second League on February 22, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Radomir.