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Strumska Slava vs Botev Plovdiv II — Second League 2018

Strumska Slava
Strumska Slava
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Botev Plovdiv II
Botev Plovdiv II
3/17/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 23Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Strumska Slava56%
×Draw26%
Botev Plovdiv II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strumska Slava
1.55
Botev Plovdiv II
0.78

Strumska Slava creates 99% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 54 away

creates per match

Strumska Slava
1.17
Botev Plovdiv II
0.52

allows per match

Strumska Slava
1.03
Botev Plovdiv II
1.93

finishing

Strumska Slava+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strumska Slava ↓

Botev Plovdiv II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Strumska Slava or draw
81%
Strumska Slava or Botev Plovdiv II
74%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv II
44%

Winning margin

Strumska Slava wins by 2+
29%
Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Strumska Slava 1+ goals
79%
Strumska Slava 2+ goals
46%
Strumska Slava 3+ goals
20%
Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals
54%
Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals
18%
Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Strumska Slava (draw refunded)
75%
Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strumska Slava at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 110 matches

Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.93 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strumska Slava attack 1.17 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.55

Botev Plovdiv II attack 0.52 + Strumska Slava defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Strumska Slava scores more
56%
level
26%
Botev Plovdiv II scores more
19%

Strumska Slava at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Strumska Slava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Strumska Slava 1–0 Botev Plovdiv II

Strumska Slava beat Botev Plovdiv II 1-0 in Second League on March 17, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Radomir.