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Struga vs Shkendija — First League 2019

Struga
Struga
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shkendija
Shkendija
9/17/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Gradska Plaža Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Struga39%
×Draw27%
Shkendija34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Struga
1.30
Shkendija
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 105 away

creates per match

Struga
1.63
Shkendija
1.60

allows per match

Struga
0.79
Shkendija
0.97

finishing

Struga+0.00on par
Shkendija+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Struga ↓

Shkendija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Struga or draw
66%
Struga or Shkendija
73%
Draw or Shkendija
61%

Winning margin

Struga wins by 2+
17%
Shkendija wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Struga 1+ goals
73%
Struga 2+ goals
37%
Struga 3+ goals
14%
Shkendija 1+ goals
70%
Shkendija 2+ goals
34%
Shkendija 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Struga (draw refunded)
53%
Shkendija (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Struga at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.79 · 112 matches

Shkendija away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.97 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Struga attack 1.63 + Shkendija defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.30

Shkendija attack 1.60 + Struga defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Struga scores more
39%
level
27%
Shkendija scores more
34%

Struga at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Struga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Struga 1–1 Shkendija

Struga and Shkendija drew 1-1 in First League on September 17, 2025.

The match was played at Gradska Plaža Stadium in Struga.