Struga 2–2 KF Gostivari: Result & Stats

Struga

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

KF Gostivari

9/29/2024

First League · Round 8Gradska Plaža Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Struga50%

×Draw28%

KF Gostivari23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StrugaExpected goals in this matchKF Gostivari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.83

Struga

1.38

KF Gostivari

0.83

Struga creates 66% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 31 away

1.63

creates per match

0.87

0.79

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Struga

1.63

KF Gostivari

0.87

allows per match

Struga

0.79

KF Gostivari

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Struga+0.00on par

KF Gostivari+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Struga ↓

KF Gostivari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Struga or draw

77%

Struga or KF Gostivari

72%

Draw or KF Gostivari

50%

Winning margin

Struga wins by 2+

24%

KF Gostivari wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Struga 1+ goals

75%

Struga 2+ goals

40%

Struga 3+ goals

16%

KF Gostivari 1+ goals

56%

KF Gostivari 2+ goals

20%

KF Gostivari 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Struga (draw refunded)

69%

KF Gostivari (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Struga at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.79 · 112 matches

KF Gostivari away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.13 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Struga attack 1.63 + KF Gostivari defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

KF Gostivari attack 0.87 + Struga defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Struga scores more

50%

level

28%

KF Gostivari scores more

23%

Struga at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Struga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff