Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Struga vs FK Rabotnicki — First League 2019

Struga
Struga
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FK Rabotnicki
FK Rabotnicki
8/22/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 3Gradska Plaža Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Struga51%
×Draw26%
FK Rabotnicki22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Struga
1.48
FK Rabotnicki
0.88

Struga creates 68% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 111 away

creates per match

Struga
1.63
FK Rabotnicki
0.96

allows per match

Struga
0.79
FK Rabotnicki
1.32

finishing

Struga+0.00on par
FK Rabotnicki+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Struga ↓

FK Rabotnicki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Struga or draw
78%
Struga or FK Rabotnicki
74%
Draw or FK Rabotnicki
49%

Winning margin

Struga wins by 2+
26%
FK Rabotnicki wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Struga 1+ goals
77%
Struga 2+ goals
43%
Struga 3+ goals
19%
FK Rabotnicki 1+ goals
59%
FK Rabotnicki 2+ goals
22%
FK Rabotnicki 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Struga (draw refunded)
70%
FK Rabotnicki (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Struga at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.79 · 112 matches

FK Rabotnicki away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Struga attack 1.63 + FK Rabotnicki defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.48

FK Rabotnicki attack 0.96 + Struga defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Struga scores more
51%
level
26%
FK Rabotnicki scores more
22%

Struga at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Struga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Struga 2–0 FK Rabotnicki

Struga beat FK Rabotnicki 2-0 in First League on August 22, 2025.

The match was played at Gradska Plaža Stadium in Struga.