Struga 2–2 Bregalnica Štip: Result & Stats

Struga

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Bregalnica Štip

4/14/2024

First League · Round 27Gradska Plaža Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Struga57%

×Draw25%

Bregalnica Štip18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StrugaExpected goals in this matchBregalnica Štip

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.80

Struga

1.63

Bregalnica Štip

0.80

Struga creates 104% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 47 away

1.63

creates per match

0.81

0.79

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Struga

1.63

Bregalnica Štip

0.81

allows per match

Struga

0.79

Bregalnica Štip

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Struga+0.00on par

Bregalnica Štip+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Struga ↓

Bregalnica Štip →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Struga or draw

82%

Struga or Bregalnica Štip

75%

Draw or Bregalnica Štip

43%

Winning margin

Struga wins by 2+

31%

Bregalnica Štip wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Struga 1+ goals

80%

Struga 2+ goals

48%

Struga 3+ goals

22%

Bregalnica Štip 1+ goals

55%

Bregalnica Štip 2+ goals

19%

Bregalnica Štip 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Struga (draw refunded)

76%

Bregalnica Štip (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Struga at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.79 · 112 matches

Bregalnica Štip away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Struga attack 1.63 + Bregalnica Štip defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.63

Bregalnica Štip attack 0.81 + Struga defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Struga scores more

57%

level

25%

Bregalnica Štip scores more

18%

Struga at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Struga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff