Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stromsgodset vs Valerenga — Eliteserien 2026

Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
CANC
16:00
Valerenga
Valerenga
4/17/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 4Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Stromsgodset45%
×Draw23%
Valerenga32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stromsgodset
1.76
Valerenga
1.47

Stromsgodset creates 20% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 29 away

creates per match

Stromsgodset
1.82
Valerenga
1.12

allows per match

Stromsgodset
1.81
Valerenga
1.70

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.60scores less
Valerenga+0.02on par

Total goals

Over: 63Under: 3763%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Valerenga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw
68%
Stromsgodset or Valerenga
77%
Draw or Valerenga
55%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+
24%
Valerenga wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals
83%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
52%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
26%
Valerenga 1+ goals
77%
Valerenga 2+ goals
43%
Valerenga 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
58%
Valerenga (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.81 · 37 matches

Valerenga away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.70 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Valerenga defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.76

Valerenga attack 1.12 + Stromsgodset defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stromsgodset scores more
45%
level
23%
Valerenga scores more
32%

Stromsgodset at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stromsgodset face Valerenga (Eliteserien)

Eliteserien returns with Stromsgodset hosting Valerenga. Match starts April 17, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stromsgodset host Valerenga at Marienlyst Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.