Stromsgodset 0–2 Valerenga: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Valerenga

C. Borchgrevink 76'

H. Bjørdal 15'

11/1/2020

Eliteserien · Round 23Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Stromsgodset45%

×Draw23%

Valerenga32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchValerenga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.47

Stromsgodset

1.76

Valerenga

1.47

Stromsgodset creates 20% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 29 away

1.82

creates per match

1.12

1.81

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Valerenga

1.12

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.81

Valerenga

1.70

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.60scores less

Valerenga+0.02on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Valerenga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

68%

Stromsgodset or Valerenga

77%

Draw or Valerenga

55%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

24%

Valerenga wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

83%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

52%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

26%

Valerenga 1+ goals

77%

Valerenga 2+ goals

43%

Valerenga 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

58%

Valerenga (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.81 · 37 matches

Valerenga away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.70 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Valerenga defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.76

Valerenga attack 1.12 + Stromsgodset defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

45%

level

23%

Valerenga scores more

32%

Stromsgodset at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

C. Borchgrevink

Valerenga · D

8.2

Match Events

15'

45'

45'

74'

74'

K. Tokstad← M. Maigaard

74'

A. Stenseth← M. Mawa

75'

H. Stengel← I. Jack

76'

C. Borchgrevink↳ A. Dønnum

78'

M. Vilhjálmsson← V. Kjartansson

78'

O. Holm← H. Shala

90+2'

F. Myhre← A. Dønnum

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetValerenga

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots12

4Corners3

16Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots12

4On Target5

6Off Target3

3Blocked4

6Inside Box7

7Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

439Total Passes421

338Accurate Passes321

77%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3

Match Recap: Stromsgodset vs Valerenga

Valerenga beat Stromsgodset 2-0 in Eliteserien on November 1, 2020.

Goals: H. Bjørdal (15'), C. Borchgrevink (76').

Stromsgodset controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.

Stromsgodset vs Valerenga — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Stromsgodset vs Valerenga