Stromsgodset 0–1 Tromso: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tromso

Y. Paintsil 73'

4/30/2023

Eliteserien · Round 4Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

Stromsgodset42%

×Draw23%

Tromso35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchTromso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.57

Stromsgodset

1.72

Tromso

1.57

Stromsgodset creates 10% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 38 away

1.82

creates per match

1.33

1.81

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Tromso

1.33

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.81

Tromso

1.61

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.60scores less

Tromso-0.01on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Tromso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

65%

Stromsgodset or Tromso

77%

Draw or Tromso

58%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

22%

Tromso wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

82%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

51%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

25%

Tromso 1+ goals

79%

Tromso 2+ goals

46%

Tromso 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

54%

Tromso (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.81 · 37 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Tromso defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.72

Tromso attack 1.33 + Stromsgodset defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

42%

level

23%

Tromso scores more

35%

Stromsgodset at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

H. Stengel

Stromsgodset · M

7.9

Match Events

46'

S. Hanssen← A. Leifsson

69'

J. Braut Brunes← I. Jack

69'

J. Therkelsen← O. Enersen

69'

Y. Paintsil← R. Norheim

73'

Y. Paintsil↳ N. Vesterlund

76'

A. Jenssen← F. Winther

86'

K. Krasniqi← J. Ekeland

88'

M. Koskela← S. Opsahl

88'

T. Hafstad← V. Erlien

90'

Miika Koskela

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetTromso

Overview

58%Possession42%

20Total Shots7

12Corners3

8Fouls8

Shots

20Total Shots7

3On Target2

13Off Target4

4Blocked1

11Inside Box2

9Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

492Total Passes368

396Accurate Passes279

80%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0