Stromsgodset 3–1 Tromso: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tromso

Johan Hove 90'

Martin Ovenstad 47'

Yacouba Sylla 25'

Kent-Are Antonsen 23'

5/19/2019

Eliteserien · Round 9Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Stromsgodset41%

×Draw23%

Tromso36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchTromso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.60

Stromsgodset

1.71

Tromso

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 39 away

1.82

creates per match

1.37

1.83

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Tromso

1.37

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.83

Tromso

1.59

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.50scores less

Tromso-0.06on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Tromso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

64%

Stromsgodset or Tromso

77%

Draw or Tromso

59%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

21%

Tromso wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

82%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

51%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

24%

Tromso 1+ goals

80%

Tromso 2+ goals

47%

Tromso 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

53%

Tromso (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.83 · 38 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Tromso defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.71

Tromso attack 1.37 + Stromsgodset defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

41%

level

23%

Tromso scores more

36%

Stromsgodset at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

Yacouba Sylla

Stromsgodset · M

7.9

Match Events

23'

Kent-Are Antonsen↳ Anders Jenssen

25'

Yacouba Sylla

47'

Martin Ovenstad↳ Stian Ringstad

55'

Martin Ovenstad

56'

Sebastian Pedersen← Martin Spelmann

66'

Sigurd Grønli← Magnus Andersen

77'

Johan Hove← Herman Stengel

77'

August Mikkelsen← Lasse Nilsen

80'

Henning Hauger← Martin Ovenstad

85'

Brayan Rojas← Marcus Pedersen

89'

Stian Ringstad

90'

Johan Hove

90'

Sebastian Pedersen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetTromso

Overview

38%Possession62%

20Total Shots13

4Corners4

24Fouls10

Shots

20Total Shots13

9On Target2

8Off Target8

3Blocked3

14Inside Box7

6Outside Box6

Passing

38%Possession62%

327Total Passes529

236Accurate Passes444

72%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

24Fouls10

3Yellow Cards0

Eliteserien: Stromsgodset 3–1 Tromso

Stromsgodset beat Tromso 3-1 in Eliteserien on May 19, 2019.

Goals: Kent-Are Antonsen (23'), Yacouba Sylla (25'), Martin Ovenstad (47'), Johan Hove (90').

Tromso controlled possession (62%) and registered 13 shots to 20.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.

Stromsgodset vs Tromso — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Stromsgodset 3–1 Tromso