Stromsgodset 2–1 Stabaek: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Stabaek

F. Friday 80'

J. Hove 37'

O. Edvardsen 35'

7/18/2021

Eliteserien · Round 13Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Stromsgodset47%

×Draw23%

Stabaek29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchStabaek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.32

Stromsgodset

1.75

Stabaek

1.32

Stromsgodset creates 33% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 59 away

1.58

creates per match

1.10

1.54

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.58

Stabaek

1.10

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.54

Stabaek

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stromsgodset+0.00on par

Stabaek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Stabaek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

71%

Stromsgodset or Stabaek

77%

Draw or Stabaek

53%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

26%

Stabaek wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

83%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

52%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

25%

Stabaek 1+ goals

73%

Stabaek 2+ goals

38%

Stabaek 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

62%

Stabaek (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.54 · 107 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.92 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.58 + Stabaek defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.75

Stabaek attack 1.10 + Stromsgodset defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

47%

level

23%

Stabaek scores more

29%

Stromsgodset at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Hove

Stromsgodset · M

9.3

Match Events

35'

O. Edvardsen↳ K. Hansen

37'

J. Hove↳ J. Parr

59'

Ari Leifsson

63'

Jeppe Moe

65'

S. Skytte← H. Shala

65'

K. Kostadinov← F. Azemi

67'

P. Mendy← J. Parr

74'

M. Solheim← J. Moe

78'

M. Mawa← T. Gulliksen

78'

M. Maigaard← I. Jack

80'

F. Friday↳ J. Hove

83'

K. Kinoshita← M. Solbakken

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetStabaek

Overview

58%Possession42%

25Total Shots13

7Corners4

9Fouls10

Shots

25Total Shots13

11On Target5

7Off Target4

7Blocked4

17Inside Box10

8Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

531Total Passes382

437Accurate Passes294

82%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves9

Discipline

9Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1