Stromsgodset 2–2 Stabaek: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Stabaek

Marcus Pedersen 51', 1'

O. Omoijuanfo 45'

F. Boli 3'

3/11/2018

Eliteserien · Round 1Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Stromsgodset44%

×Draw22%

Stabaek34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchStabaek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.73

Stromsgodset

1.98

Stabaek

1.73

Stromsgodset creates 14% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 7 away

1.82

creates per match

1.63

1.83

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Stabaek

1.63

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.83

Stabaek

2.15

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

-0.63scores less than expected

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.50scores less

Stabaek-0.63scores less

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Stabaek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

66%

Stromsgodset or Stabaek

78%

Draw or Stabaek

56%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

25%

Stabaek wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

86%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

59%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

31%

Stabaek 1+ goals

82%

Stabaek 2+ goals

52%

Stabaek 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

56%

Stabaek (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.83 · 38 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.15 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Stabaek defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.98

Stabaek attack 1.63 + Stromsgodset defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

44%

level

22%

Stabaek scores more

34%

Stromsgodset at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Marcus Pedersen

Stromsgodset · F

9.1

Match Events

1'

Marcus Pedersen

3'

F. Boli↳ O. Omoijuanfo

14'

Franck Boli

45'

O. Omoijuanfo↳ F. Boli

46'

H. Hauger← Francisco Júnior

50'

Hugo Vetlesen

51'

Marcus Pedersen

55'

Martin Ovenstad

64'

A. Pellegrino← T. Nguen

73'

R. Hernández← J. Moe

76'

John Hou Sæter

81'

M. Abdellaoue← Bassel Jradi

86'

T. Børkeeiet← H. Vetlesen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetStabaek

Overview

57%Possession43%

24Total Shots12

6Corners4

13Fouls14

Shots

24Total Shots12

7On Target7

10Off Target2

7Blocked3

12Inside Box9

12Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

472Total Passes352

367Accurate Passes261

78%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls14

0Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2