Stromsgodset 3–0 Raufoss: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

3 – 0

Raufoss

6/9/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Stromsgodset50%

×Draw22%

Raufoss28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchRaufoss

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.49

Stromsgodset

2.04

Raufoss

1.49

Stromsgodset creates 37% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.58

creates per match

1.40

1.58

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.58

Raufoss

1.40

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.58

Raufoss

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stromsgodset+0.00on par

Raufoss+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Raufoss →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

72%

Stromsgodset or Raufoss

78%

Draw or Raufoss

50%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

29%

Raufoss wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

87%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

60%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

33%

Raufoss 1+ goals

77%

Raufoss 2+ goals

44%

Raufoss 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

64%

Raufoss (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Raufoss away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.58 + Raufoss defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.04

Raufoss attack 1.40 + Stromsgodset defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

50%

level

22%

Raufoss scores more

28%

Stromsgodset at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff