Stromsgodset 5–4 Ranheim: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

5 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Ranheim

M. Mehnert 89'

F. P. Vilaseca Ardraa 74', 72'

H. Stengel 69' (pen)

S. Pingel 63'

J. Taaje 73' (OG)

A. Fossli 52'

M. Johnsen 48', 3' (pen)

5/16/2026

1. Division · Round 7Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Stromsgodset63%

×Draw19%

Ranheim19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchRanheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.28

Stromsgodset

2.46

Ranheim

1.28

Stromsgodset creates 92% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 101 away

3.14

creates per match

1.43

1.14

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Stromsgodset

3.14

Ranheim

1.43

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.14

Ranheim

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stromsgodset+0.00on par

Ranheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Ranheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

81%

Stromsgodset or Ranheim

81%

Draw or Ranheim

37%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

41%

Ranheim wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

91%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

70%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

44%

Ranheim 1+ goals

72%

Ranheim 2+ goals

37%

Ranheim 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

77%

Ranheim (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 3.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Ranheim away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.78 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 3.14 + Ranheim defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.46

Ranheim attack 1.43 + Stromsgodset defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

63%

level

19%

Ranheim scores more

19%

Stromsgodset at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

M. JohnsenPenalty

35'

48'

52'

58'

58'

G. Wikheim← E. Melkersen

63'

F. Nyenetue← A. Fossli

63'

S. Pingel↳ V. Dedes

66'

F. Camara

69'

H. StengelPenalty

70'

H. Stengel

72'

F. P. Vilaseca Ardraa↳ V. Dedes

73'

J. TaajeOwn goal

74'

F. P. Vilaseca Ardraa↳ G. Wikheim

77'

K. Krasniqi← K. Antonsen

77'

O. Enersen← L. Vilsvik

80'

J. Berisha← M. Sylva

80'

S. Diop← O. Holden

83'

M. Spiten← F. P. Vilaseca Ardraa

89'

M. Mehnert↳ K. Krasniqi

90+3'

T. B. Haukeberg

90'

M. Emilsen← S. Sjovold

Stromsgodset

Ranheim

1

22

19

4

5

11

A

▼

Sylva

18

Camara

26

▼

Sjovold

20

⚽

▼

Fossli

8

▼

Holden

10

⚽2

Johnsen

12

Lampinen-

26

▼

Vilsvik

5

▼

Sormo

71

Valsvik

3

A

Dedes

16

⚽2

▼

Ardraa

22

▼

Antonsen

77

⚽

Mehnert

10

⚽

Stengel

9

▼

Melkersen

11

⚽

Pingel

Manager: Magne Hoseth

58'▲J. Taaje←▼B. Sormo

58'▲G. Wikheim←▼E. Melkersen

77'▲K. Krasniqi←▼K. Antonsen

77'▲O. Enersen←▼L. Vilsvik

83'▲M. Spiten←▼F. P. Vilaseca Ardraa

Stromsgodset substitutes

1Lamhauge8Krasniqi14Enersen15Heredia-Randen25Taaje37Silalahi39Spiten47Andresen80Wikheim

Manager: Eggen Rismark Christian

63'▲F. Nyenetue←▼A. Fossli

80'▲J. Berisha←▼M. Sylva

80'▲S. Diop←▼O. Holden

90'▲M. Emilsen←▼S. Sjovold

Ranheim substitutes

12Madsen3Aasbak7Emilsen9Berisha15Nyenetue16Diop21Solberg