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Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam — Eliteserien 2026

Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam
11/12/2023EliteserienEliteserien · Round 28Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Stromsgodset47%
×Draw24%
Ham-Kam30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stromsgodset
1.73
Ham-Kam
1.33

Stromsgodset creates 30% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 65 away

creates per match

Stromsgodset
1.60
Ham-Kam
1.15

allows per match

Stromsgodset
1.52
Ham-Kam
1.86

finishing

Stromsgodset+0.00on par
Ham-Kam+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Ham-Kam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw
70%
Stromsgodset or Ham-Kam
76%
Draw or Ham-Kam
53%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+
25%
Ham-Kam wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals
82%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
52%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
25%
Ham-Kam 1+ goals
74%
Ham-Kam 2+ goals
38%
Ham-Kam 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
61%
Ham-Kam (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.52 · 112 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.86 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.60 + Ham-Kam defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.73

Ham-Kam attack 1.15 + Stromsgodset defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stromsgodset scores more
47%
level
24%
Ham-Kam scores more
30%

Stromsgodset at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stromsgodset vs Ham-Kam

Ham-Kam beat Stromsgodset 1-0 in Eliteserien on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.