Stromsgodset 1–1 Ham-Kam: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ham-Kam

I. Jack 50'

K. Onsrud 74'

7/24/2022

Eliteserien · Round 15Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Stromsgodset46%

×Draw23%

Ham-Kam31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchHam-Kam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.45

Stromsgodset

1.80

Ham-Kam

1.45

Stromsgodset creates 24% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 32 away

1.82

creates per match

1.08

1.81

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Ham-Kam

1.08

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.81

Ham-Kam

1.78

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.60scores less

Ham-Kam+0.14scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Ham-Kam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

69%

Stromsgodset or Ham-Kam

77%

Draw or Ham-Kam

54%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

25%

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

83%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

54%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

27%

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

77%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

42%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

60%

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.81 · 37 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Ham-Kam defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.80

Ham-Kam attack 1.08 + Stromsgodset defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

46%

level

23%

Ham-Kam scores more

31%

Stromsgodset at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

H. Stengel

Stromsgodset · M

8.3

Match Events

50'

I. Jack↳ H. Stengel

66'

E. Sildnes← J. Enkerud

66'

C. Bayiha← A. Melgalvis

73'

K. Hernández-Foster← F. Sjølstad

73'

Y. Yakovenko← P. Kirkevold

74'

E. Boahene← I. Jack

74'

K. Onsrud

87'

Kobe Hernández-Foster

87'

Yuriy Yakovenko

90+3'

Hassan Kurucay

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetHam-Kam

Overview

65%Possession35%

19Total Shots12

8Corners3

7Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots12

4On Target5

8Off Target5

7Blocked2

14Inside Box6

5Outside Box6

Passing

65%Possession35%

531Total Passes292

441Accurate Passes194

83%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls12

0Yellow Cards3

5Offsides1