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Stromsgodset vs Egersund — 1. Division 2026

Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
Preview
15:00
Egersund
Egersund
8/9/20261. Division1. Division · Round 17Marienlyst Stadion
58%
Stromsgodset
model favours
58%19%23%

Egersund score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
76%
over 2.5 goals
72%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Stromsgodset58%
×Draw19%
Egersund23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stromsgodset
2.48
Egersund
1.54

Stromsgodset creates 61% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 36 away

creates per match

Stromsgodset
3.14
Egersund
1.94

allows per match

Stromsgodset
1.14
Egersund
1.81

finishing

Stromsgodset+0.00on par
Egersund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 76Under: 2476%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 72No: 2872%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Egersund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw
77%
Stromsgodset or Egersund
81%
Draw or Egersund
42%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+
37%
Egersund wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals
92%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
70%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
44%
Egersund 1+ goals
79%
Egersund 2+ goals
45%
Egersund 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
71%
Egersund (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 3.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Egersund away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.81 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 3.14 + Egersund defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.48

Egersund attack 1.94 + Stromsgodset defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Stromsgodset scores more
58%
level
19%
Egersund scores more
23%

Stromsgodset at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Stromsgodset have scored in 8 games running
  • 70% of Stromsgodset’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (70% and 63% over 2.5)
  • Both teams score in 70% of Stromsgodset’s matches
  • 46% of Stromsgodset’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Stromsgodset score first in 60% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Stromsgodset
LDDWW
Egersund
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stromsgodset face Egersund (1. Division)

1. Division returns with Stromsgodset hosting Egersund. Match starts August 9, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stromsgodset host Egersund at Marienlyst Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.