Egersund 0–5 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Egersund

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Stromsgodset

F. P. Vilaseca Ardraa 90'

H. Stengel 84', 77'

S. Pingel 40', 34'

5/31/2026

1. Division · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Egersund35%

×Draw21%

Stromsgodset44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EgersundExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

2.08

Egersund

1.82

Stromsgodset

2.08

Stromsgodset creates 14% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 7 away

1.65

creates per match

2.71

1.45

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Egersund

1.65

Stromsgodset

2.71

allows per match

Egersund

1.45

Stromsgodset

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Egersund+0.00on par

Stromsgodset+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egersund ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Egersund or draw

56%

Egersund or Stromsgodset

79%

Draw or Stromsgodset

65%

Winning margin

Egersund wins by 2+

18%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Egersund 1+ goals

84%

Egersund 2+ goals

54%

Egersund 3+ goals

27%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

87%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

61%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Egersund (draw refunded)

44%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egersund at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.45 · 40 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 2.71, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egersund attack 1.65 + Stromsgodset defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.82

Stromsgodset attack 2.71 + Egersund defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Egersund scores more

35%

level

21%

Stromsgodset scores more

44%

Stromsgodset at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

S. Pingel↳ M. Mehnert

40'

S. Pingel↳ E. Melkersen

61'

J. Lynum← M. Haheim-Elveseter

63'

G. Wikheim← M. Mehnert

71'

F. P. Vilaseca Ardraa← E. Melkersen

73'

K. Saetherbo← H. Tadesse

73'

N. Tornvig← O. Kapskarmo

73'

S. R. Michalsen← K. Eggen

77'

H. Stengel↳ L. Vilsvik

82'

B. Sormo← K. Krasniqi

82'

A. Heredia-Randen← L. Vilsvik

82'

M. Spiten← S. Pingel

84'

H. Stengel

86'

M. Spiten

90'

F. P. Vilaseca Ardraa↳ V. Dedes

Egersund

Stromsgodset

1

Lamhauge

26

A

▼

Vilsvik

25

Taaje

71

Valsvik

3

A

Dedes

8

▼

Krasniqi

22

Antonsen

77

A

▼

Mehnert

10

⚽2

Stengel

9

A

▼

Melkersen

11

⚽2

▼

1

2

31

3

18

8

22

▼

Tadesse

27

Vatne

21

▼

Eggen

9

▼

Kapskarmo

29

▼

Haheim-El

Manager: Endre Eide

61'▲J. Lynum←▼M. Haheim-Elveseter

73'▲K. Saetherbo←▼H. Tadesse

73'▲N. Tornvig←▼O. Kapskarmo

73'▲S. R. Michalsen←▼K. Eggen

Egersund substitutes

6Saetherbo7Tornvig10Michalsen14Lynum20Hokstad25Gregersen28Chrupalla91Davis12Bergene

Manager: Magne Hoseth

63'▲G. Wikheim←▼M. Mehnert

71'▲F. P. Vilaseca Ardraa←▼E. Melkersen

82'▲B. Sormo←▼K. Krasniqi

82'▲A. Heredia-Randen←▼L. Vilsvik

82'▲M. Spiten←▼S. Pingel

Stromsgodset substitutes

12Lampinen-Skaug4Spa5Sormo15Heredia-Randen16Ardraa19Skistad37Silalahi39Spiten80Wikheim