Stromsgodset 1–1 Aalesund: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Aalesund

M. Maigaard 89' (pen)

S. Haugen 30'

6/28/2020

Eliteserien · Round 4Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Stromsgodset52%

×Draw21%

Aalesund27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchAalesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.47

Stromsgodset

2.12

Aalesund

1.47

Stromsgodset creates 44% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 13 away

1.82

creates per match

1.13

1.81

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Aalesund

1.13

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.81

Aalesund

2.41

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.60scores less

Aalesund-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Aalesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

73%

Stromsgodset or Aalesund

79%

Draw or Aalesund

48%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

31%

Aalesund wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

88%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

62%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

35%

Aalesund 1+ goals

77%

Aalesund 2+ goals

43%

Aalesund 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

66%

Aalesund (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.81 · 37 matches

Aalesund away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.41 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Aalesund defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.12

Aalesund attack 1.13 + Stromsgodset defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

52%

level

21%

Aalesund scores more

27%

Stromsgodset at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

D. Klinkenberg

Aalesund · D

7.5

Match Events

30'

37'

43'

45'

45'

O. Lie← D. Klinkenberg

46'

H. Stengel← A. Leifsson

53'

Niklas Gunnarsson

62'

J. Ikaunieks← S. Hanssen

69'

I. Uzochukwu← P. Larsen

78'

J. Hatlehol← S. Sno

80'

M. Mølvadgaard← K. Tokstad

88'

Izunna Uzochukwu

89'

T. Gulliksen← N. Gunnarsson

89'

M. MaigaardPenalty

90'

Jack Ipalibo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetAalesund

Overview

63%Possession37%

8Total Shots10

5Corners4

15Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots10

2On Target3

2Off Target6

4Blocked1

5Inside Box6

3Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

497Total Passes297

396Accurate Passes179

80%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls14

1Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1

Eliteserien: Stromsgodset 1–1 Aalesund

Stromsgodset and Aalesund drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on June 28, 2020.

Goals: S. Haugen (30'), M. Maigaard (89' pen).

Stromsgodset controlled possession (63%) and registered 8 shots to 10.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.

Stromsgodset vs Aalesund — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Stromsgodset 1–1 Aalesund