Aalesund 1–4 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Aalesund

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Stromsgodset

M. Karlsbakk 80'

D. Tchamba 62'

L. Salvesen 54'

E. Mwimba 47' (OG)

J. Hove 10'

12/9/2020

Eliteserien · Round 29Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Aalesund48%

×Draw23%

Stromsgodset29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AalesundExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.39

Aalesund

1.83

Stromsgodset

1.39

Aalesund creates 32% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 24 away

1.49

creates per match

0.96

1.82

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Aalesund

1.49

Stromsgodset

0.96

allows per match

Aalesund

1.82

Stromsgodset

2.16

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Aalesund-0.19scores less

Stromsgodset+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Aalesund or draw

71%

Aalesund or Stromsgodset

77%

Draw or Stromsgodset

52%

Winning margin

Aalesund wins by 2+

26%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Aalesund 1+ goals

84%

Aalesund 2+ goals

54%

Aalesund 3+ goals

28%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

75%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

40%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Aalesund (draw refunded)

62%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.82 · 10 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.16 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund attack 1.49 + Stromsgodset defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.83

Stromsgodset attack 0.96 + Aalesund defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Aalesund scores more

48%

level

23%

Stromsgodset scores more

29%

Aalesund at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Aalesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88

L. Salvesen

Stromsgodset · F

8.2

Match Events

10'

J. Hove↳ L. Salvesen

14'

Kristoffer Tokstad

33'

V. Ingimundarson← K. Tokstad

39'

Jonas Gronner

46'

S. Sæthre← V. Fiskerstrand

46'

I. Uzochukwu← P. Larsen

47'

E. MwimbaOwn goal

54'

L. Salvesen↳ L. Vilsvik

62'

D. Tchamba

68'

S. Tafjord← D. Ólafsson

69'

M. Diaw← N. Castro

77'

M. Karlsbakk← S. Nordli

77'

A. Leifsson← D. Tchamba

80'

M. Karlsbakk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AalesundStromsgodset

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots15

3Corners1

12Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots15

3On Target4

7Off Target7

4Blocked4

8Inside Box6

6Outside Box9

Passing

50%Possession50%

412Total Passes409

306Accurate Passes306

74%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1

Eliteserien: Aalesund 1–4 Stromsgodset

Stromsgodset beat Aalesund 4-1 in Eliteserien on December 9, 2020.

Goals: J. Hove (10'), E. Mwimba (47' o.g.), L. Salvesen (54'), D. Tchamba (62'), M. Karlsbakk (80').

Aalesund controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 15.

The match was played at Color Line Stadion in Ålesund.

Aalesund vs Stromsgodset — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Aalesund 1–4 Stromsgodset