Strommen 0–2 Sogndal: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Strommen

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sogndal

A. Adams 90+1'

K. Nessø 41'

10/24/2021

1. Division · Round 25Strømmen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Strommen38%

×Draw24%

Sogndal38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StrommenExpected goals in this matchSogndal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.51

Strommen

1.52

Sogndal

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 114 away

1.46

creates per match

1.33

1.69

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Strommen

1.46

Sogndal

1.33

allows per match

Strommen

1.69

Sogndal

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strommen+0.00on par

Sogndal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strommen ↓

Sogndal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Strommen or draw

62%

Strommen or Sogndal

76%

Draw or Sogndal

62%

Winning margin

Strommen wins by 2+

18%

Sogndal wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Strommen 1+ goals

78%

Strommen 2+ goals

45%

Strommen 3+ goals

20%

Sogndal 1+ goals

78%

Sogndal 2+ goals

44%

Sogndal 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Strommen (draw refunded)

50%

Sogndal (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strommen at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.69 · 54 matches

Sogndal away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strommen attack 1.46 + Sogndal defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sogndal attack 1.33 + Strommen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Strommen scores more

38%

level

24%

Sogndal scores more

38%

Strommen at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Strommen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

A. Kryger

41'

K. Nessø

46'

E. Pálsson← J. Bakke

65'

M. Dahlby← P. Andresen

76'

W. Mikalsen← M. Sjølstad

76'

L. Callaku← T. George

81'

K. Nesso

87'

M. Kaland← S. Olafsen

90+1'

A. Adams

Strommen

Sogndal

1

30

2

6

4

5

17

15

⚽

Nessø

25

▼

Bakke

7

Skålevik

10

⚽

Adams

1

Lillevik

23

▼

Andresen

26

▼

Olafsen

2

Tvedte

3

Olsen

17

▼

George

22

▼

14

8

6

16

Manager: O. Nesselquist

65'▲M. Dahlby←▼P. Andresen

76'▲W. Mikalsen←▼M. Sjølstad

76'▲L. Callaku←▼T. George

87'▲M. Kaland←▼S. Olafsen

Strommen substitutes

19Dahlby7Mikalsen11Callaku20Kaland18Sannes21Valberg24Naustdal25Myhre31Buhake

Manager: E. Bakke

46'▲E. Pálsson←▼J. Bakke

Sogndal substitutes

8Pálsson9Kupen13Johnsen16Lereng18Hoven26Darcy