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Strommen vs Ranheim — 1. Division 2026

Strommen
Strommen
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Ranheim
Ranheim
L. Fajfric 70' (pen)
A. Fossli 50', 36'
O. Holden 31'
M. Johnsen 28'
8/9/20261. Division1. Division · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Strommen39%
×Draw24%
Ranheim38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strommen
1.61
Ranheim
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 103 away

creates per match

Strommen
1.43
Ranheim
1.46

allows per match

Strommen
1.70
Ranheim
1.79

finishing

Strommen+0.00on par
Ranheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strommen ↓

Ranheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Strommen or draw
62%
Strommen or Ranheim
76%
Draw or Ranheim
61%

Winning margin

Strommen wins by 2+
19%
Ranheim wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Strommen 1+ goals
80%
Strommen 2+ goals
48%
Strommen 3+ goals
22%
Ranheim 1+ goals
79%
Ranheim 2+ goals
47%
Ranheim 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Strommen (draw refunded)
51%
Ranheim (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strommen at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.70 · 56 matches

Ranheim away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.79 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strommen attack 1.43 + Ranheim defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.61

Ranheim attack 1.46 + Strommen defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Strommen scores more
39%
level
24%
Ranheim scores more
38%

Strommen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Strommen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
M. Johnsen↳ O. Holden
31'
O. Holden↳ A. Fossli
36'
A. Fossli↳ O. Holden
46'
L. Skammelsrud← S. Sjovold
46'
E. Rogne← K. Somesi
46'
L. Fajfric← M. Waehler
50'
A. Fossli↳ O. Holden
60'
H. Kristiansen← C. Crestani
60'
A. Nord← S. Beck
66'
N. Pallas← H. Gangstad
67'
M. Sylva← M. Lundgren
67'
S. Haugland← M. Johnsen
70'
L. FajfricPenalty
71'
J. Kristengard← M. Paulsen
86'
T. Kongerud← M. Sylva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Strommen vs Ranheim

Ranheim beat Strommen 4-1 in 1. Division on August 9, 2026.

Goals: M. Johnsen (28'), O. Holden (31'), A. Fossli (36', 50'), L. Fajfric (70' pen).