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Strommen vs Junkeren — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Strommen
Strommen
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Junkeren
Junkeren
11/4/20232. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Strømmen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Strommen65%
×Draw18%
Junkeren17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strommen
2.52
Junkeren
1.22

Strommen creates 107% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 32 away

creates per match

Strommen
2.38
Junkeren
1.41

allows per match

Strommen
1.03
Junkeren
2.66

finishing

Strommen+0.00on par
Junkeren+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strommen ↓

Junkeren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Strommen or draw
83%
Strommen or Junkeren
82%
Draw or Junkeren
35%

Winning margin

Strommen wins by 2+
44%
Junkeren wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Strommen 1+ goals
92%
Strommen 2+ goals
71%
Strommen 3+ goals
45%
Junkeren 1+ goals
70%
Junkeren 2+ goals
34%
Junkeren 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Strommen (draw refunded)
79%
Junkeren (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strommen at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

Junkeren away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.66 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strommen attack 2.38 + Junkeren defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 2.52

Junkeren attack 1.41 + Strommen defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Strommen scores more
65%
level
18%
Junkeren scores more
17%

Strommen at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Strommen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Division - Group 2: Strommen 3–0 Junkeren

Strommen beat Junkeren 3-0 in 2. Division - Group 2 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Strømmen Stadion in Strømmen.