Strommen 1–0 Alta: Result & Stats

Strommen

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alta

J. Skille 80'

9/16/2023

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Strømmen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Strommen64%

×Draw18%

Alta18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StrommenExpected goals in this matchAlta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.23

Strommen

2.44

Alta

1.23

Strommen creates 98% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 62 away

2.38

creates per match

1.44

1.03

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Strommen

2.38

Alta

1.44

allows per match

Strommen

1.03

Alta

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strommen+0.00on par

Alta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strommen ↓

Alta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Strommen or draw

82%

Strommen or Alta

82%

Draw or Alta

36%

Winning margin

Strommen wins by 2+

42%

Alta wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Strommen 1+ goals

91%

Strommen 2+ goals

70%

Strommen 3+ goals

43%

Alta 1+ goals

71%

Alta 2+ goals

35%

Alta 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Strommen (draw refunded)

78%

Alta (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strommen at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

Alta away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.50 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strommen attack 2.38 + Alta defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.44

Alta attack 1.44 + Strommen defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Strommen scores more

64%

level

18%

Alta scores more

18%

Strommen at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Strommen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

47'

64'

72'

80'

83'

C. Crestani← U. Seferi

84'

N. Skum← M. Andersen

88'

C. Crestani

Strommen

Alta

55

4

3

19

30

15

▼

23

10

14

8

18

▼

1

4

2

20

8

19

▼

21

7

14

6

▼

Solberg

15

⚽

Skille

Manager: K. Wehrman

64'▲S. Werni←▼N. Solberg

83'▲C. Crestani←▼U. Seferi

Strommen substitutes

16Werni3Crestani10Achrifi17Bækken25Aronsen30Kollstrom12Christensen24Bergersen

Manager: M. Duilo

72'▲I. Yartey←▼P. Brekke

84'▲N. Skum←▼M. Andersen

Alta substitutes

7Yartey12Skum1Eltermanis5Lamark17Harjo20Suhr-Stamnes

2. Division - Group 2: Strommen 1–0 Alta

Strommen beat Alta 1-0 in 2. Division - Group 2 on September 16, 2023.

Goals: J. Skille (80').

The match was played at Strømmen Stadion in Strømmen.

Strommen vs Alta — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. Division - Group 2: Strommen 1–0 Alta