Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. vs Rostov II — Second League - Group 1 2020

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Rostov II
Rostov II
4/27/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Stadion Lokomotiv Rostov-na-Donu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.45%
×Draw25%
Rostov II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
1.60
Rostov II
1.27

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. creates 26% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 42 away

creates per match

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
1.94
Rostov II
1.55

allows per match

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
1.00
Rostov II
1.26

finishing

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.+0.00on par
Rostov II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. ↓

Rostov II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. or draw
70%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. or Rostov II
75%
Draw or Rostov II
55%

Winning margin

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. wins by 2+
23%
Rostov II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 1+ goals
80%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 2+ goals
47%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 3+ goals
22%
Rostov II 1+ goals
72%
Rostov II 2+ goals
36%
Rostov II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. (draw refunded)
60%
Rostov II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Rostov II away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. attack 1.94 + Rostov II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.60

Rostov II attack 1.55 + Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. scores more
45%
level
25%
Rostov II scores more
30%

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 1–2 Rostov II

Rostov II beat Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 2-1 in Second League - Group 1 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv Rostov-na-Donu in Rostov-na-Donu.