Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 1–0 Forte Taganrog

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Forte Taganrog

4/13/2024

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Stadion Lokomotiv Rostov-na-Donu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.43%

×Draw25%

Forte Taganrog32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.Expected goals in this matchForte Taganrog

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.31

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

1.54

Forte Taganrog

1.31

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. creates 18% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 64 away

1.94

creates per match

1.61

1.00

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

1.94

Forte Taganrog

1.61

allows per match

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

1.00

Forte Taganrog

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.+0.00on par

Forte Taganrog+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. ↓

Forte Taganrog →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. or draw

68%

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. or Forte Taganrog

75%

Draw or Forte Taganrog

57%

Winning margin

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. wins by 2+

21%

Forte Taganrog wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 1+ goals

79%

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 2+ goals

45%

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 3+ goals

20%

Forte Taganrog 1+ goals

73%

Forte Taganrog 2+ goals

38%

Forte Taganrog 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. (draw refunded)

57%

Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Forte Taganrog away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.14 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. attack 1.94 + Forte Taganrog defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.54

Forte Taganrog attack 1.61 + Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. scores more

43%

level

25%

Forte Taganrog scores more

32%

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff