Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 1–2 Biolog: Result & Stats

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Biolog

D. Stepanenko 65'

S. Lysenko 35'

B. Kondramashin 28'

10/5/2024

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Novokolor Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.52%

×Draw23%

Biolog25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.Expected goals in this matchBiolog

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.15

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

1.77

Biolog

1.15

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. creates 54% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 73 away

1.94

creates per match

1.30

1.00

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

1.94

Biolog

1.30

allows per match

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

1.00

Biolog

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.+0.00on par

Biolog+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. ↓

Biolog →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. or draw

75%

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. or Biolog

77%

Draw or Biolog

48%

Winning margin

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. wins by 2+

29%

Biolog wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 1+ goals

83%

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 2+ goals

53%

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 3+ goals

26%

Biolog 1+ goals

68%

Biolog 2+ goals

32%

Biolog 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. (draw refunded)

68%

Biolog (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Biolog away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.59 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. attack 1.94 + Biolog defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.77

Biolog attack 1.30 + Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. scores more

52%

level

23%

Biolog scores more

25%

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

B. Kondramashin

35'

S. Lysenko

46'

S. Demchenko← N. Kukanov

60'

D. Eremin← M. Karpukhin

60'

I. Butovchenko← V. Titarenko

63'

Y. Makhmudov← A. Borisov

65'

D. Stepanenko

68'

M. Piriev← S. Lysenko

68'

A. Barantsov← D. Pereverzev

78'

V. Ushakov← A. Demagin

85'

A. Abdokov← B. Kondramashin

85'

G. Raskind← M. Malysh

Stroitel

Biolog

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Lysenko

▼

Pereverze

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Korobchenko

46'▲S. Demchenko←▼N. Kukanov

60'▲D. Eremin←▼M. Karpukhin

60'▲I. Butovchenko←▼V. Titarenko

78'▲V. Ushakov←▼A. Demagin

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. substitutes

DemchenkoEreminButovchenkoUshakov

Manager: V. Zazdravnykh

63'▲Y. Makhmudov←▼A. Borisov

68'▲M. Piriev←▼S. Lysenko

68'▲A. Barantsov←▼D. Pereverzev

85'▲A. Abdokov←▼B. Kondramashin

85'▲G. Raskind←▼M. Malysh

Biolog substitutes

MakhmudovPirievBarantsovAbdokovRaskind