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Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz II — Second League - Group 1 2020

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
FT
6 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
11/16/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Novokolor Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.66%
×Draw19%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
2.17
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
0.89

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. creates 144% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 58 away

creates per match

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
1.94
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
0.78

allows per match

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
1.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
2.41

finishing

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. or draw
86%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
81%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
34%

Winning margin

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. wins by 2+
43%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 1+ goals
89%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 2+ goals
64%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 3+ goals
36%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals
59%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals
22%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. (draw refunded)
82%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. attack 1.94 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.17

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 0.78 + Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. scores more
66%
level
19%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more
14%

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 6-2 in Second League - Group 1 on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Novokolor Arena in Abramovka.