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Strogino vs Znamya Truda — Cup 2019

Strogino
Strogino
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
8/2/2023CupCup · Regions Path - 1st RoundStadion Yantar'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Strogino37%
×Draw23%
Znamya Truda40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strogino
1.66
Znamya Truda
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Strogino
1.75
Znamya Truda
0.71

allows per match

Strogino
2.75
Znamya Truda
1.57

finishing

Strogino+0.00on par
Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strogino ↓

Znamya Truda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Strogino or draw
60%
Strogino or Znamya Truda
77%
Draw or Znamya Truda
63%

Winning margin

Strogino wins by 2+
19%
Znamya Truda wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Strogino 1+ goals
81%
Strogino 2+ goals
49%
Strogino 3+ goals
23%
Znamya Truda 1+ goals
82%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
52%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Strogino (draw refunded)
48%
Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strogino at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strogino attack 1.75 + Znamya Truda defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.66

Znamya Truda attack 0.71 + Strogino defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Strogino scores more
37%
level
23%
Znamya Truda scores more
40%

Znamya Truda at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Znamya Truda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Strogino vs Znamya Truda

Znamya Truda beat Strogino 3-2 in Cup on August 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Yantar' in Moskva.