Strogino 1–1 Khimki II: Result & Stats

Strogino

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Khimki II

8/18/2024

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19Stadion Yantar'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Strogino44%

×Draw23%

Khimki II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StroginoExpected goals in this matchKhimki II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.47

Strogino

1.74

Khimki II

1.47

Strogino creates 18% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 74 away

1.66

creates per match

1.36

1.57

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Strogino

1.66

Khimki II

1.36

allows per match

Strogino

1.57

Khimki II

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strogino+0.00on par

Khimki II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strogino ↓

Khimki II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Strogino or draw

67%

Strogino or Khimki II

77%

Draw or Khimki II

56%

Winning margin

Strogino wins by 2+

23%

Khimki II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Strogino 1+ goals

82%

Strogino 2+ goals

52%

Strogino 3+ goals

25%

Khimki II 1+ goals

77%

Khimki II 2+ goals

43%

Khimki II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Strogino (draw refunded)

57%

Khimki II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strogino at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.57 · 93 matches

Khimki II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strogino attack 1.66 + Khimki II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.74

Khimki II attack 1.36 + Strogino defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Strogino scores more

44%

level

23%

Khimki II scores more

33%

Strogino at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Strogino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff