Strogino U20 4–1 UOR №5 U20: Result & Stats

Strogino U20

FT

4 – 1

UOR №5 U20

12/15/2020

Youth Championship · Round 14Stadion Yantar'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Strogino U2056%

×Draw20%

UOR №5 U2024%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Strogino U20Expected goals in this matchUOR №5 U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.42

Strogino U20

2.23

UOR №5 U20

1.42

Strogino U20 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 65 away

1.84

creates per match

1.40

1.43

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

Strogino U20

1.84

UOR №5 U20

1.40

allows per match

Strogino U20

1.43

UOR №5 U20

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strogino U20+0.00on par

UOR №5 U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strogino U20 ↓

UOR №5 U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Strogino U20 or draw

76%

Strogino U20 or UOR №5 U20

80%

Draw or UOR №5 U20

44%

Winning margin

Strogino U20 wins by 2+

34%

UOR №5 U20 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Strogino U20 1+ goals

89%

Strogino U20 2+ goals

65%

Strogino U20 3+ goals

38%

UOR №5 U20 1+ goals

76%

UOR №5 U20 2+ goals

41%

UOR №5 U20 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Strogino U20 (draw refunded)

70%

UOR №5 U20 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strogino U20 at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.43 · 56 matches

UOR №5 U20 away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.63 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strogino U20 attack 1.84 + UOR №5 U20 defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.23

UOR №5 U20 attack 1.40 + Strogino U20 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Strogino U20 scores more

56%

level

20%

UOR №5 U20 scores more

24%

Strogino U20 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Strogino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff