Strogino U20 1–1 Lokomotiv Moskva U19

Strogino U20

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lokomotiv Moskva U19

5/5/2023

Youth Championship · Championship Round - 8Stadion Yantar'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Strogino U2033%

×Draw24%

Lokomotiv Moskva U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Strogino U20Expected goals in this matchLokomotiv Moskva U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.67

Strogino U20

1.42

Lokomotiv Moskva U19

1.67

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 79 away

1.84

creates per match

1.92

1.43

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Strogino U20

1.84

Lokomotiv Moskva U19

1.92

allows per match

Strogino U20

1.43

Lokomotiv Moskva U19

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strogino U20+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Moskva U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strogino U20 ↓

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Strogino U20 or draw

57%

Strogino U20 or Lokomotiv Moskva U19

76%

Draw or Lokomotiv Moskva U19

67%

Winning margin

Strogino U20 wins by 2+

15%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Strogino U20 1+ goals

76%

Strogino U20 2+ goals

41%

Strogino U20 3+ goals

17%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 1+ goals

81%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 2+ goals

50%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Strogino U20 (draw refunded)

43%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strogino U20 at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.43 · 56 matches

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.00 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strogino U20 attack 1.84 + Lokomotiv Moskva U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 attack 1.92 + Strogino U20 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Strogino U20 scores more

33%

level

24%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 scores more

43%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff