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Strogino U20 vs Arsenal Tula U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Strogino U20
Strogino U20
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Arsenal Tula U20
Arsenal Tula U20
3/14/2022Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Lower Table Round - 2Stadion Yantar'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Strogino U2044%
×Draw23%
Arsenal Tula U2033%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strogino U20
1.72
Arsenal Tula U20
1.46

Strogino U20 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 39 away

creates per match

Strogino U20
1.84
Arsenal Tula U20
1.49

allows per match

Strogino U20
1.43
Arsenal Tula U20
1.59

finishing

Strogino U20+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula U20+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strogino U20 ↓

Arsenal Tula U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Strogino U20 or draw
67%
Strogino U20 or Arsenal Tula U20
77%
Draw or Arsenal Tula U20
56%

Winning margin

Strogino U20 wins by 2+
23%
Arsenal Tula U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Strogino U20 1+ goals
82%
Strogino U20 2+ goals
51%
Strogino U20 3+ goals
25%
Arsenal Tula U20 1+ goals
77%
Arsenal Tula U20 2+ goals
43%
Arsenal Tula U20 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Strogino U20 (draw refunded)
57%
Arsenal Tula U20 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strogino U20 at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.43 · 56 matches

Arsenal Tula U20 away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strogino U20 attack 1.84 + Arsenal Tula U20 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.72

Arsenal Tula U20 attack 1.49 + Strogino U20 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Strogino U20 scores more
44%
level
23%
Arsenal Tula U20 scores more
33%

Strogino U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Strogino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Strogino U20 4–2 Arsenal Tula U20

Strogino U20 beat Arsenal Tula U20 4-2 in Youth Championship on March 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Yantar' in Moskva.