Stripfing 1–2 Austria Vienna (Am): Result & Stats

Stripfing

FT

1 – 2

Austria Vienna (Am)

7/9/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportplatz Stripfing SV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Stripfing50%

×Draw23%

Austria Vienna (Am)27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StripfingExpected goals in this matchAustria Vienna (Am)

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.24

Stripfing

1.77

Austria Vienna (Am)

1.24

Stripfing creates 43% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.20

creates per match

0.67

1.80

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Stripfing

1.20

Austria Vienna (Am)

0.67

allows per match

Stripfing

1.80

Austria Vienna (Am)

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stripfing+0.00on par

Austria Vienna (Am)+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stripfing ↓

Austria Vienna (Am) →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Stripfing or draw

73%

Stripfing or Austria Vienna (Am)

77%

Draw or Austria Vienna (Am)

50%

Winning margin

Stripfing wins by 2+

27%

Austria Vienna (Am) wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Stripfing 1+ goals

83%

Stripfing 2+ goals

53%

Stripfing 3+ goals

26%

Austria Vienna (Am) 1+ goals

71%

Austria Vienna (Am) 2+ goals

35%

Austria Vienna (Am) 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Stripfing (draw refunded)

65%

Austria Vienna (Am) (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stripfing at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Austria Vienna (Am) away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stripfing attack 1.20 + Austria Vienna (Am) defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Austria Vienna (Am) attack 0.67 + Stripfing defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stripfing scores more

50%

level

23%

Austria Vienna (Am) scores more

27%

Stripfing at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stripfing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff