Strindheim 2–1 Verdal: Result & Stats

Strindheim

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Verdal

7/29/2023

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 13Leangen Bolig Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Strindheim65%

×Draw18%

Verdal17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StrindheimExpected goals in this matchVerdal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.49

1.19

Strindheim

2.49

Verdal

1.19

Strindheim creates 109% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 13 away

3.13

creates per match

1.15

1.22

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Strindheim

3.13

Verdal

1.15

allows per match

Strindheim

1.22

Verdal

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strindheim+0.00on par

Verdal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strindheim ↓

Verdal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Strindheim or draw

83%

Strindheim or Verdal

82%

Draw or Verdal

35%

Winning margin

Strindheim wins by 2+

43%

Verdal wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Strindheim 1+ goals

92%

Strindheim 2+ goals

71%

Strindheim 3+ goals

45%

Verdal 1+ goals

70%

Verdal 2+ goals

33%

Verdal 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Strindheim (draw refunded)

80%

Verdal (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strindheim at home — creates 3.13, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

Verdal away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strindheim attack 3.13 + Verdal defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.49

Verdal attack 1.15 + Strindheim defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Strindheim scores more

65%

level

18%

Verdal scores more

17%

Strindheim at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Strindheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff