Strindheim 0–4 Ull/Kisa: Result & Stats

Strindheim

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Ull/Kisa

S. Risan 78' (OG)

K. Sørensen 65'

Filip Da Silva 45'

M. Bergum 22'

8/10/2024

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Leangen Bolig Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Strindheim39%

×Draw23%

Ull/Kisa38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StrindheimExpected goals in this matchUll/Kisa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.65

Strindheim

1.67

Ull/Kisa

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 58 away

1.73

creates per match

1.83

1.46

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Strindheim

1.73

Ull/Kisa

1.83

allows per match

Strindheim

1.46

Ull/Kisa

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strindheim+0.00on par

Ull/Kisa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strindheim ↓

Ull/Kisa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Strindheim or draw

62%

Strindheim or Ull/Kisa

77%

Draw or Ull/Kisa

61%

Winning margin

Strindheim wins by 2+

20%

Ull/Kisa wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Strindheim 1+ goals

81%

Strindheim 2+ goals

50%

Strindheim 3+ goals

23%

Ull/Kisa 1+ goals

81%

Ull/Kisa 2+ goals

49%

Ull/Kisa 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Strindheim (draw refunded)

51%

Ull/Kisa (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strindheim at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

Ull/Kisa away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.60 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strindheim attack 1.73 + Ull/Kisa defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.67

Ull/Kisa attack 1.83 + Strindheim defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Strindheim scores more

39%

level

23%

Ull/Kisa scores more

38%

Strindheim at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Strindheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

M. Bergum

37'

J. Solem

45'

Filip Da Silva

46'

A. Angellsen← G. Saugestad

54'

S. Risan

63'

K. Sorensen

63'

P. Johansen← J. Solem

65'

K. Sørensen

69'

T. Amundsen← J. Horten

69'

E. Kizilirmak← M. Hammerås

72'

A. Opsahl← K. Sørensen

78'

S. RisanOwn goal

79'

M. Walle← B. Naustdal

82'

V. Dønnem← S. Risan

85'

A. Empa← Filip Da Silva

Strindheim

Ull/Kisa

12

4

2

3

5

6

▼

Naustdal

7

⚽

Bergum

18

Flores

11

Skille

22

⚽

▼

Sørensen

20

⚽

▼

1

22

16

17

▼

Saugestad

2

🥅

▼

Risan

8

Lund

9

Nytoft

19

▼

Solem

6

Gløsen

66

▼

Hammerås

18

▼

Horten

Manager: P. Rinnan

46'▲A. Angellsen←▼G. Saugestad

63'▲P. Johansen←▼J. Solem

69'▲T. Amundsen←▼J. Horten

69'▲E. Kizilirmak←▼M. Hammerås

82'▲V. Dønnem←▼S. Risan

Strindheim substitutes

20Angellsen11Johansen24Amundsen39Kizilirmak27Dønnem3Brauteset7Tørstad15Solem21Aasbø

Manager: K. Wehrman

72'▲A. Opsahl←▼K. Sørensen

79'▲M. Walle←▼B. Naustdal

85'▲A. Empa←▼Filip Da Silva

Ull/Kisa substitutes

13Opsahl21Walle27Empa31Rrahmani