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Strindheim vs Tynset — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Strindheim
Strindheim
FT
6 – 1
Tynset
Tynset
9/3/20213. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 5Ruta Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Strindheim84%
×Draw9%
Tynset7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strindheim
4.31
Tynset
1.27

Strindheim creates 239% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 6 away

creates per match

Strindheim
3.13
Tynset
1.33

allows per match

Strindheim
1.22
Tynset
5.50

finishing

Strindheim+0.00on par
Tynset+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strindheim ↓

Tynset →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–12%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Strindheim or draw
93%
Strindheim or Tynset
91%
Draw or Tynset
16%

Winning margin

Strindheim wins by 2+
70%
Tynset wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Strindheim 1+ goals
98%
Strindheim 2+ goals
92%
Strindheim 3+ goals
77%
Tynset 1+ goals
72%
Tynset 2+ goals
36%
Tynset 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Strindheim (draw refunded)
93%
Tynset (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strindheim at home — creates 3.13, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

Tynset away — creates 1.33, concedes 5.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strindheim attack 3.13 + Tynset defence 5.50 → ÷2 → 4.31

Tynset attack 1.33 + Strindheim defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Strindheim scores more
84%
level
9%
Tynset scores more
7%

Strindheim at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Strindheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Strindheim vs Tynset

Strindheim beat Tynset 6-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on September 3, 2021.

The match was played at Ruta Arena in Trondheim.