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Strindheim vs Mosjøen — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Strindheim
Strindheim
FT
4 – 1
Mosjøen
Mosjøen
5/5/20233. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 5Leangen Bolig Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Strindheim74%
×Draw14%
Mosjøen12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strindheim
3.06
Mosjøen
1.19

Strindheim creates 157% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 13 away

creates per match

Strindheim
3.13
Mosjøen
1.15

allows per match

Strindheim
1.22
Mosjøen
3.00

finishing

Strindheim+0.00on par
Mosjøen+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strindheim ↓

Mosjøen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Strindheim or draw
88%
Strindheim or Mosjøen
86%
Draw or Mosjøen
26%

Winning margin

Strindheim wins by 2+
54%
Mosjøen wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Strindheim 1+ goals
95%
Strindheim 2+ goals
80%
Strindheim 3+ goals
57%
Mosjøen 1+ goals
70%
Mosjøen 2+ goals
33%
Mosjøen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Strindheim (draw refunded)
86%
Mosjøen (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strindheim at home — creates 3.13, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

Mosjøen away — creates 1.15, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strindheim attack 3.13 + Mosjøen defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.06

Mosjøen attack 1.15 + Strindheim defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Strindheim scores more
74%
level
14%
Mosjøen scores more
12%

Strindheim at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Strindheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Strindheim 4–1 Mosjøen

Strindheim beat Mosjøen 4-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on May 5, 2023.

The match was played at Leangen Bolig Arena in Trondheim.