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Strindheim vs Kristiansund II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Strindheim
Strindheim
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kristiansund II
Kristiansund II
F. Lund 70' (pen)
A. Nytoft 50'
9/23/20233. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 21Leangen Bolig Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Strindheim67%
×Draw17%
Kristiansund II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strindheim
2.74
Kristiansund II
1.30

Strindheim creates 111% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 26 away

creates per match

Strindheim
3.13
Kristiansund II
1.38

allows per match

Strindheim
1.22
Kristiansund II
2.35

finishing

Strindheim+0.00on par
Kristiansund II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strindheim ↓

Kristiansund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Strindheim or draw
84%
Strindheim or Kristiansund II
83%
Draw or Kristiansund II
33%

Winning margin

Strindheim wins by 2+
46%
Kristiansund II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Strindheim 1+ goals
93%
Strindheim 2+ goals
75%
Strindheim 3+ goals
51%
Kristiansund II 1+ goals
73%
Kristiansund II 2+ goals
37%
Kristiansund II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Strindheim (draw refunded)
81%
Kristiansund II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strindheim at home — creates 3.13, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

Kristiansund II away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strindheim attack 3.13 + Kristiansund II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.74

Kristiansund II attack 1.38 + Strindheim defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Strindheim scores more
67%
level
17%
Kristiansund II scores more
16%

Strindheim at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Strindheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
A. Nytoft
70'
F. LundPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Strindheim vs Kristiansund II

Strindheim beat Kristiansund II 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on September 23, 2023.

Goals: A. Nytoft (50'), F. Lund (70' pen).

The match was played at Leangen Bolig Arena in Trondheim.