Strindheim 3–0 Bodø / Glimt II: Result & Stats

Strindheim

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bodø / Glimt II

6/11/2023

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 9Leangen Bolig Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Strindheim72%

×Draw15%

Bodø / Glimt II13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StrindheimExpected goals in this matchBodø / Glimt II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

1.25

Strindheim

3.00

Bodø / Glimt II

1.25

Strindheim creates 140% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 26 away

3.13

creates per match

1.27

1.22

allows per match

2.88

creates per match

Strindheim

3.13

Bodø / Glimt II

1.27

allows per match

Strindheim

1.22

Bodø / Glimt II

2.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strindheim+0.00on par

Bodø / Glimt II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strindheim ↓

Bodø / Glimt II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Strindheim or draw

87%

Strindheim or Bodø / Glimt II

85%

Draw or Bodø / Glimt II

28%

Winning margin

Strindheim wins by 2+

52%

Bodø / Glimt II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Strindheim 1+ goals

95%

Strindheim 2+ goals

79%

Strindheim 3+ goals

56%

Bodø / Glimt II 1+ goals

71%

Bodø / Glimt II 2+ goals

36%

Bodø / Glimt II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Strindheim (draw refunded)

84%

Bodø / Glimt II (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strindheim at home — creates 3.13, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

Bodø / Glimt II away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strindheim attack 3.13 + Bodø / Glimt II defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 3.00

Bodø / Glimt II attack 1.27 + Strindheim defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Strindheim scores more

72%

level

15%

Bodø / Glimt II scores more

13%

Strindheim at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Strindheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff