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Strindheim vs Aalesund II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Strindheim
Strindheim
Preview
16:00
Aalesund II
Aalesund II
8/3/20263. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Round 14Leangen Bolig Arena
50%
Strindheim
model favours
50%20%30%

Aalesund II win just 35% against the top half (vs 71% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
75%
over 2.5 goals
73%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Strindheim50%
×Draw20%
Aalesund II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strindheim
2.23
Aalesund II
1.69

Strindheim creates 32% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 33 away

creates per match

Strindheim
2.50
Aalesund II
1.39

allows per match

Strindheim
2.00
Aalesund II
1.97

finishing

Strindheim+0.00on par
Aalesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strindheim ↓

Aalesund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Strindheim or draw
70%
Strindheim or Aalesund II
80%
Draw or Aalesund II
50%

Winning margin

Strindheim wins by 2+
30%
Aalesund II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Strindheim 1+ goals
89%
Strindheim 2+ goals
65%
Strindheim 3+ goals
38%
Aalesund II 1+ goals
82%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
50%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Strindheim (draw refunded)
63%
Aalesund II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strindheim at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Aalesund II away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.97 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strindheim attack 2.50 + Aalesund II defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.23

Aalesund II attack 1.39 + Strindheim defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Strindheim scores more
50%
level
20%
Aalesund II scores more
30%

Strindheim at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Strindheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Strindheim
WWLLW
II
LLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Strindheim vs Aalesund II — Match Preview

Strindheim face Aalesund II on August 3, 2026 in this 3. Division - Girone 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Strindheim host Aalesund II at Leangen Bolig Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.