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Strindheim vs Aalesund II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Strindheim
Strindheim
FT
3 – 3
Aalesund II
Aalesund II
8/29/20213. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 4Ruta Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Strindheim55%
×Draw20%
Aalesund II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strindheim
2.34
Aalesund II
1.54

Strindheim creates 52% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 20 away

creates per match

Strindheim
3.13
Aalesund II
1.85

allows per match

Strindheim
1.22
Aalesund II
1.55

finishing

Strindheim+0.00on par
Aalesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strindheim ↓

Aalesund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Strindheim or draw
75%
Strindheim or Aalesund II
80%
Draw or Aalesund II
45%

Winning margin

Strindheim wins by 2+
34%
Aalesund II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Strindheim 1+ goals
90%
Strindheim 2+ goals
67%
Strindheim 3+ goals
41%
Aalesund II 1+ goals
79%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
45%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Strindheim (draw refunded)
69%
Aalesund II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strindheim at home — creates 3.13, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

Aalesund II away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strindheim attack 3.13 + Aalesund II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.34

Aalesund II attack 1.85 + Strindheim defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Strindheim scores more
55%
level
20%
Aalesund II scores more
25%

Strindheim at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Strindheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Strindheim 3–3 Aalesund II

Strindheim and Aalesund II drew 3-3 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Ruta Arena in Trondheim.