Strausberg 2–2 Victoria Seelow: Result & Stats

Strausberg

FT

2 – 2

Victoria Seelow

8/14/2020

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 1Energie Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Strausberg65%

×Draw17%

Victoria Seelow17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StrausbergExpected goals in this matchVictoria Seelow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.69

1.34

Strausberg

2.69

Victoria Seelow

1.34

Strausberg creates 101% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

2.60

creates per match

0.89

1.80

allows per match

2.78

creates per match

Strausberg

2.60

Victoria Seelow

0.89

allows per match

Strausberg

1.80

Victoria Seelow

2.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strausberg+0.00on par

Victoria Seelow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strausberg ↓

Victoria Seelow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Strausberg or draw

83%

Strausberg or Victoria Seelow

83%

Draw or Victoria Seelow

35%

Winning margin

Strausberg wins by 2+

45%

Victoria Seelow wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Strausberg 1+ goals

93%

Strausberg 2+ goals

74%

Strausberg 3+ goals

49%

Victoria Seelow 1+ goals

74%

Victoria Seelow 2+ goals

39%

Victoria Seelow 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Strausberg (draw refunded)

79%

Victoria Seelow (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strausberg at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Victoria Seelow away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strausberg attack 2.60 + Victoria Seelow defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.69

Victoria Seelow attack 0.89 + Strausberg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Strausberg scores more

65%

level

17%

Victoria Seelow scores more

17%

Strausberg at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Strausberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff