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Strausberg vs Stern — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Strausberg
Strausberg
CANC
12:00
Stern
Stern
12/20/2020Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 16Energie Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Strausberg52%
×Draw21%
Stern27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strausberg
2.18
Stern
1.54

Strausberg creates 42% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 21 away

creates per match

Strausberg
2.60
Stern
1.29

allows per match

Strausberg
1.80
Stern
1.76

finishing

Strausberg+0.00on par
Stern+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strausberg ↓

Stern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Strausberg or draw
73%
Strausberg or Stern
79%
Draw or Stern
48%

Winning margin

Strausberg wins by 2+
31%
Stern wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Strausberg 1+ goals
89%
Strausberg 2+ goals
64%
Strausberg 3+ goals
37%
Stern 1+ goals
79%
Stern 2+ goals
45%
Stern 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Strausberg (draw refunded)
66%
Stern (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strausberg at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Stern away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strausberg attack 2.60 + Stern defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.18

Stern attack 1.29 + Strausberg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Strausberg scores more
52%
level
21%
Stern scores more
27%

Strausberg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Strausberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Strausberg host Stern

December 20, 2020: Strausberg take on Stern in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Strausberg host Stern at Energie Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.