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Strausberg vs Neustrelitz — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Strausberg
Strausberg
CANC
12:00
Neustrelitz
Neustrelitz
11/28/2020Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 13Energie Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Strausberg49%
×Draw21%
Neustrelitz30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strausberg
2.12
Neustrelitz
1.64

Strausberg creates 29% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 81 away

creates per match

Strausberg
2.60
Neustrelitz
1.47

allows per match

Strausberg
1.80
Neustrelitz
1.64

finishing

Strausberg+0.00on par
Neustrelitz+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strausberg ↓

Neustrelitz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Strausberg or draw
70%
Strausberg or Neustrelitz
79%
Draw or Neustrelitz
51%

Winning margin

Strausberg wins by 2+
28%
Neustrelitz wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Strausberg 1+ goals
88%
Strausberg 2+ goals
62%
Strausberg 3+ goals
35%
Neustrelitz 1+ goals
81%
Neustrelitz 2+ goals
49%
Neustrelitz 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Strausberg (draw refunded)
62%
Neustrelitz (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strausberg at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Neustrelitz away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.64 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strausberg attack 2.60 + Neustrelitz defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.12

Neustrelitz attack 1.47 + Strausberg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Strausberg scores more
49%
level
21%
Neustrelitz scores more
30%

Strausberg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Strausberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Strausberg vs Neustrelitz — Match Preview

Strausberg face Neustrelitz on November 28, 2020 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Strausberg host Neustrelitz at Energie Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.