Strausberg 3–1 Hertha Zehlendorf: Result & Stats

Strausberg

FT

3 – 1

Hertha Zehlendorf

10/21/2020

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 5Energie Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Strausberg38%

×Draw21%

Hertha Zehlendorf41%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StrausbergExpected goals in this matchHertha Zehlendorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

2.06

Strausberg

1.96

Hertha Zehlendorf

2.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 52 away

2.60

creates per match

2.33

1.80

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Strausberg

2.60

Hertha Zehlendorf

2.33

allows per match

Strausberg

1.80

Hertha Zehlendorf

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strausberg+0.00on par

Hertha Zehlendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strausberg ↓

Hertha Zehlendorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Strausberg or draw

59%

Strausberg or Hertha Zehlendorf

79%

Draw or Hertha Zehlendorf

62%

Winning margin

Strausberg wins by 2+

20%

Hertha Zehlendorf wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Strausberg 1+ goals

86%

Strausberg 2+ goals

58%

Strausberg 3+ goals

31%

Hertha Zehlendorf 1+ goals

87%

Hertha Zehlendorf 2+ goals

61%

Hertha Zehlendorf 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Strausberg (draw refunded)

48%

Hertha Zehlendorf (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strausberg at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Hertha Zehlendorf away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.31 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strausberg attack 2.60 + Hertha Zehlendorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.96

Hertha Zehlendorf attack 2.33 + Strausberg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Strausberg scores more

38%

level

21%

Hertha Zehlendorf scores more

41%

Hertha Zehlendorf at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hertha Zehlendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff