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Strausberg vs Greifswalder FC — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Strausberg
Strausberg
FT
1 – 0
Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
10/24/2020Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 9Energie Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Strausberg37%
×Draw21%
Greifswalder FC42%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strausberg
1.83
Greifswalder FC
1.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 21 away

creates per match

Strausberg
2.60
Greifswalder FC
2.14

allows per match

Strausberg
1.80
Greifswalder FC
1.05

finishing

Strausberg+0.00on par
Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strausberg ↓

Greifswalder FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Strausberg or draw
58%
Strausberg or Greifswalder FC
79%
Draw or Greifswalder FC
63%

Winning margin

Strausberg wins by 2+
19%
Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Strausberg 1+ goals
84%
Strausberg 2+ goals
54%
Strausberg 3+ goals
28%
Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
86%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
58%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Strausberg (draw refunded)
47%
Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strausberg at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Greifswalder FC away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strausberg attack 2.60 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.83

Greifswalder FC attack 2.14 + Strausberg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Strausberg scores more
37%
level
21%
Greifswalder FC scores more
42%

Greifswalder FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Greifswalder FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Strausberg vs Greifswalder FC

Strausberg beat Greifswalder FC 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Energie Arena in Strausberg.