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Strathspey Thistle vs Sauchie Juniors — FA Cup 2019

Strathspey Thistle
Strathspey Thistle
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Sauchie Juniors
Sauchie Juniors
Smith 55'
Unknown 32' (OG)
McDowell 20'
9/28/2024FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundSeafield Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Strathspey Thistle10%
×Draw14%
Sauchie Juniors76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strathspey Thistle
0.91
Sauchie Juniors
2.80

Sauchie Juniors creates 208% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Strathspey Thistle
0.60
Sauchie Juniors
2.00

allows per match

Strathspey Thistle
3.60
Sauchie Juniors
1.22

finishing

Strathspey Thistle+0.00on par
Sauchie Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strathspey Thistle ↓

Sauchie Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–210%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Strathspey Thistle or draw
24%
Strathspey Thistle or Sauchie Juniors
86%
Draw or Sauchie Juniors
90%

Winning margin

Strathspey Thistle wins by 2+
3%
Sauchie Juniors wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

Strathspey Thistle 1+ goals
60%
Strathspey Thistle 2+ goals
23%
Strathspey Thistle 3+ goals
6%
Sauchie Juniors 1+ goals
94%
Sauchie Juniors 2+ goals
76%
Sauchie Juniors 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Strathspey Thistle (draw refunded)
11%
Sauchie Juniors (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strathspey Thistle at home — creates 0.60, concedes 3.60 · 5 matches

Sauchie Juniors away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strathspey Thistle attack 0.60 + Sauchie Juniors defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.91

Sauchie Juniors attack 2.00 + Strathspey Thistle defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Strathspey Thistle scores more
10%
level
14%
Sauchie Juniors scores more
76%

Sauchie Juniors at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Sauchie Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
McDowell
32'
Own goal
55'
Smith

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Strathspey Thistle 0–6 Sauchie Juniors

Sauchie Juniors beat Strathspey Thistle 6-0 in FA Cup on September 28, 2024.

Goals: McDowell (20'), ? (32' o.g.), Smith (55').

The match was played at Seafield Park in Grantown-on-Spey.