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Strathspey Thistle vs Dundee North End — FA Cup 2019

Strathspey Thistle
Strathspey Thistle
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dundee North End
Dundee North End
9/27/2025FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundSeafield Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Strathspey Thistle15%
×Draw17%
Dundee North End69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strathspey Thistle
1.14
Dundee North End
2.63

Dundee North End creates 131% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Strathspey Thistle
0.60
Dundee North End
1.67

allows per match

Strathspey Thistle
3.60
Dundee North End
1.67

finishing

Strathspey Thistle+0.00on par
Dundee North End+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strathspey Thistle ↓

Dundee North End →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Strathspey Thistle or draw
31%
Strathspey Thistle or Dundee North End
83%
Draw or Dundee North End
85%

Winning margin

Strathspey Thistle wins by 2+
5%
Dundee North End wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Strathspey Thistle 1+ goals
68%
Strathspey Thistle 2+ goals
32%
Strathspey Thistle 3+ goals
11%
Dundee North End 1+ goals
93%
Dundee North End 2+ goals
73%
Dundee North End 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Strathspey Thistle (draw refunded)
17%
Dundee North End (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strathspey Thistle at home — creates 0.60, concedes 3.60 · 5 matches

Dundee North End away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strathspey Thistle attack 0.60 + Dundee North End defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.14

Dundee North End attack 1.67 + Strathspey Thistle defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Strathspey Thistle scores more
15%
level
17%
Dundee North End scores more
69%

Dundee North End at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Dundee North End will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Strathspey
Dundee
Ryan John Esson
Manager: Ryan John Esson
L. Toshney
Manager: L. Toshney

Match Recap: Strathspey Thistle vs Dundee North End

Dundee North End beat Strathspey Thistle 2-1 in FA Cup on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Seafield Park in Grantown-on-Spey.