Strathspey Thistle 0–5 Camelon Juniors

Strathspey Thistle

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Camelon Juniors

9/17/2022

FA Cup · 1st RoundSeafield Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Strathspey Thistle5%

×Draw8%

Camelon Juniors87%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Strathspey ThistleExpected goals in this matchCamelon Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.87

3.87

Strathspey Thistle

0.87

Camelon Juniors

3.87

Camelon Juniors creates 345% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

0.60

creates per match

4.14

3.60

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Strathspey Thistle

0.60

Camelon Juniors

4.14

allows per match

Strathspey Thistle

3.60

Camelon Juniors

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strathspey Thistle+0.00on par

Camelon Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strathspey Thistle ↓

Camelon Juniors →

0–01%

0–14%

0–27%

0–39%

0–49%

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–38%

1–48%

2–00%

2–11%

2–23%

2–34%

2–43%

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Strathspey Thistle or draw

13%

Strathspey Thistle or Camelon Juniors

92%

Draw or Camelon Juniors

95%

Winning margin

Strathspey Thistle wins by 2+

Camelon Juniors wins by 2+

72%

Team goals

Strathspey Thistle 1+ goals

58%

Strathspey Thistle 2+ goals

22%

Strathspey Thistle 3+ goals

Camelon Juniors 1+ goals

98%

Camelon Juniors 2+ goals

89%

Camelon Juniors 3+ goals

71%

Draw no bet

Strathspey Thistle (draw refunded)

Camelon Juniors (draw refunded)

95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Strathspey Thistle at home — creates 0.60, concedes 3.60 · 5 matches

Camelon Juniors away — creates 4.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Strathspey Thistle attack 0.60 + Camelon Juniors defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.87

Camelon Juniors attack 4.14 + Strathspey Thistle defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 3.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 87%?"

Strathspey Thistle scores more

level

Camelon Juniors scores more

87%

Camelon Juniors at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Camelon Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff